Predicting The Future

Show notes

Key Takeaways

• Confident predictions are often wrong
• Early adopters don’t represent everyone
• Treat predictions as one possible future
• Scenario planning > trying to be right
• Focus on patterns, not hype

Timestamps

• 00:00 – The problem with future predictions
• 04:00 – Why experts get it wrong
• 06:00 – Scenario planning explained
• 12:00 – Early adopters vs. reality
• 20:00 – AI, GUIs, and extreme takes
• 27:00 – Using scenarios in product work
• 34:00 – Final thoughts

The Core Idea

• We’re in a period of change—but no one can predict exactly how it plays out
• Strong predictions often ignore uncertainty

A Better Approach

• Treat every prediction as a scenario
• Ask: what else could happen?
• Use multiple futures to guide decisions

What to Watch For

• “My experience = everyone’s future” thinking
• Over-indexing on early adopters
• Ignoring real-world constraints

How to Apply It

• Run quick scenario exercises with your team
• Push ideas to extremes to explore implications
• Extract the underlying insight (not the exact prediction)

Resources & Links:

• Follow Teresa Torres: https://ProductTalk.org
• Follow Petra Wille: https://Petra-Wille.com

Mentioned in this episode:

• Claude Code